Almost two weeks out from the opening of the NHL’s 2024 free agency, teams are slowing down after the initial rush of transactions.
We’ve seen Jake Guentzel to the Lightning, Jeff Skinner to the Oilers and several extensions already this free-agency period, but some of the biggest question marks all over the league have yet to be resolved.
Will the Hurricanes finally move Martin Necas? What’s best for the Maple Leafs’ core, given the circumstances? What does Patrik Laine’s future look like?
As we wind down from the whirlwind of early July, let’s take a look at what’s yet to be resolved approaching the dog days of the NHL offseason.
If I had to assign a theme to this year’s free agency, it would be NHL GMs sitting in a circle saying: “No-trade clauses? Wait, I didn’t think they’d actually use them.” Maybe a talented reader can create a New York magazine-esque cartoon surrounding the subject.
Rangers captain Jacob Trouba is one of the most prominent players at the helm of this quandary. It appears he’s used his 15-team no-trade clause to veto a potential deal between his hometown Red Wings and the Rangers that would send him to Michigan. There’s a lot of fodder surrounding why he did this, but I find it inappropriate to drag his family circumstances into the conversation unless he publicly drags his family into it himself.
The fact is, the Rangers gave him a no-trade clause, and he’s allowed to use it.
ESPN Insider Emily Kaplan said the process of trying to move Trouba has been “a really awkward and uncomfortable situation behind the scenes.” Kaplan also assumes that if nothing huge changes, Trouba will likely start the 2024-25 season as a Ranger.
The takeaway from this saga is that as players are growing more comfortable advocating for themselves and the stipulations of their contracts that were literally agreed upon, that NHL front offices need to stop throwing no-movement and no-trade clauses out like candy if they aren’t prepared to honor them.
Patrik Laine’s situation has a few layers. First and foremost, The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline reported that the Blue Jackets are still waiting to hear that the 26-year-old has been cleared by the NHL/NHLPA players’ assistance program, which he entered voluntarily last January.
As Portzline emphasizes in his reporting, Laine should only be cleared when those who run the program deem him well enough to get back to the NHL.
But Laine did request a trade, and the Blue Jackets are clearly no longer a great fit for him as he looks to turn over a new leaf and get back to his snipeshow ways. According to Portzline, the Blue Jackets could technically trade him while he’s still in the program, but GM Don Waddell told Portzline that clubs want to speak with him before trading for him if that’s the case.
Laine’s got two years left at an $8.7 million AAV, which is a risk to take on for the few cap-strapped teams that have a need for Laine. Plus, Waddell wants to move Laine for an actual NHL player who can contribute to today’s roster.
I’d love to see Laine get one last shot after bettering himself on a contending team. But I don’t see how that comes to fruition without the Blue Jackets eating a portion of the contract, which it seems Waddell is hesitant to do.
There’s no doubt in my mind that the Bruins will get a deal done with rising goalie star Jeremy Swayman, especially since the 25-year-old declined to file for arbitration and the Bruins declined the opportunity to file for club-elected arbitration.
This opens the Bruins up to fielding a Swayman offer sheet, but they don’t seem too concerned—especially after shedding the cap space needed to tender Swayman a long-term deal via trading his net partner, Linus Ullmark.
All of this points to a long-term extension for Swayman, which was the hard-but-correct choice for the Bruins in an onslaught of hard decisions and cap restraints this offseason.
Both parties declining arbitration makes it pretty clear an extension is on the way, even if it’s taking a minute to hammer out the details.
The discourse started the second the final horn sung at TD Garden after the Leafs once again fell to the Bruins in Round 1, Game 7 last postseason: It’s time to break up the core four.
The hockey world famously revolves around the Maple Leafs, so it was easy for even the most even-keeled among us to forget why this hadn’t already happened. The buds are the most expensive people in the league with some of the most iron clad protections in their contracts.
Auston Matthews is about to become the league’s highest-paid player with a $13.25 million AAV and a full no-movement clause kicking in this year, William Nylander’s sporting a new eight-year, $92 million contract extension with a full no-movement clause for its entirety, John Tavares’ $11 million cap hit and no-movement clause didn’t look so hot at 29 goals and 65 points in 80 games last season, and then you’ve got the scapegoat of the year in Marner.
Homegrown Marner remains at the center of trade discourse, despite the Leafs making several moves already this free agency that haven’t included him. The 27-year-old winger is entering the last year of his six-year, $65.4 million deal carrying a $10.9 million cap hit, and you guessed it, a full no-movement clause.
Applying Occam’s Razor, other NHL clubs know Marner is out of this contract next year and could acquire him on their own terms, without surrendering assets the Leafs are clearly seeking. There’s also the no-movement clause that has inherently restricted trade talks.
At this point, which NHL GM in their right mind is going to trade for Marner right now when they could just wait until the deadline or his actual free-agency period?
Martin Necas’ name has popped up at every trade deadline and free-agency period for years now, and it makes sense. The 25-year-old winger/center has a perpetually interesting offensive upside that rears up a few times per season but hasn’t fully materialized yet. His homegrown tenure with the Canes has been rocky since they kept him in the AHL longer than expected to keep him on his ELC longer.
Many years have passed since then, though, and Necas has hit the 20-plus-goal mark in two consecutive seasons now. He’s also been given career-high time on ice both of these seasons, something the Canes had been restricting prior. Necas had four goals and nine points in 11 postseason games, and he’s got years of playoff experience under his belt.
The Canes have shopped him around for years because he is a solid piece who just hasn’t seemed to really fit on the stacked roster. They want the return a player like this commands, and they’ve been careful not to sell for the sake of it.
The Hurricanes may be able to afford a Necas contract with Jake Guentzel off the table, and they sure could stand to keep a 20-plus goal-scorer as they inevitably let go of key players due to the cap.
Necas is now in arbitration, though, and is seeking a large raise and a better opportunity to earn that raise with a bigger role on a team. Arbitration adds an unpredictable element for the cap strapped Canes, so a sign-and-trade might be in the cards. If a player chooses arbitration, the club gets to decide if the contract is a one- or two-year term, but a longer-term sign-and-trade deal is still on the table before arbitration hearings start July 20.
